Dynamic multivariate loss and risk assessment of process facilities

Dynamic risk assessments (DRA) are the next generation of risk estimation approaches that help to enable safer operations of complex process systems in changing environments. By incorporating new evidences from systems in the risk assessment process, the DRA techniques ensure estimation of current risk. This thesis investigates the existing knowledge and technological challenges associated with dynamic risk assessment and proposes new methods to improve effective implementation of DRA techniques. Risk is defined as the combination of three attributes: what can go wrong, how bad could it be, and how often might it happen. This research evaluates the limitations of the methodologies that have been developed to answer the latter two questions. Loss functions are used in this work to estimate and model operational loss in process facilities. The application of loss functions provides the following advantages: (i) the stochastic nature of losses is taken into account; and (ii) the estimation of the operational loss in process facilities due to the deviation of key process characteristics (KPC) is conducted. Models to estimate reputational loss and significant elements of business interruption loss, which are usually ignored in the literature, are also provided. This research also presents a methodology to develop multivariate loss functions to measure the operational loss of multivariate process systems. For this purpose, copula functions are used to link the univariate loss functions and develop the multivariate loss functions. Copula functions are also used to address the existing challenge of loss aggregation for multiple-loss scenarios. Regarding the dynamic estimation of the probability of abnormal events, the Bayesian Network (BN) has usually been used in the literature. However, integrated safety analysis of hazardous process facilities calls for an understanding of both stochastic and topological dependencies, going beyond traditional BN analysis to study cause-effect relationships among major risk factors. This work presents a novel model based on the Copula Bayesian Network (CBN) for multivariate safety analysis of process systems, which addresses the main shortcomings of traditional BNs. The proposed CBN model offers great flexibility in probabilistic analysis of individual risk factors while considering their uncertainty and complex stochastic dependence. The research outcomes provide advanced methods for critical operations, such as the offshore operations in harsh environments, to be used in continuous improvement of processes and real-time risk estimation. Application of the proposed dynamic risk assessment framework, along with a proper safety culture, enhances the day-to-day risk-informed decision making process by constantly monitoring, evaluating and improving the process safety performance

Ranking and Level of Development According to the Agricultural Indices, Case Study: Sistan Region

Sistan region is one of the most important agricultural areas in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan. Therefore, given the heterogeneity in agriculture and recognizing these differences, the aim of this study was to obtain the level of development of agriculture in the Sistan region. To obtain this purpose Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the numerical taxonomy were used in a view of 20 indicators in the agricultural sector in the region. The required data were achieved by filling out the questionnaire certified experts and statistical yearbooks in the agricultural sector. Data analysis was used by Matlab and SPSS softwares. Results of numerical taxonomy showed that Markazi, Shibab and Poshteab sectors component parts were less developed. Also, Jazinak and Miyankangi are in the category sections were undeveloped. The results of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process(FAHP) model indicated that Markazi, Shibab and Poshteab sectors are in the first rank of development, in terms of agricultural indices in the region. Jazinak and Miyankangi are in the fourth and fifth ranking. Therefore, in general, it is clear that the level of development of agricultural in Sistan region isn’t in good condition. In this regard it is suggested that appropriate planning to promote agricultural development is on the agenda should be applied

Determining the Optimal Pattern of Vitamin Supplementation in Diets Containing Wheat Waste by Estimating the Performance and Immune Responses of Broiler Chickens

Introduction: In the past, vitamins were considered as unknown growth factors, but during the twentieth century, their structure and nature were gradually discovered. These compounds are necessary to maintain the integrity of the tissues and general health of the body. Broiler chickens are unable to synthesize vitamins (except vitamin C) or have the ability to make limited amounts of them (group B and K2). For this reason, vitamins should be added to broiler feed as a supplement. Vitamins interact with other nutrients in various ways. The main reference for vitamin requirements in broilers is the National Research Council (NRC, 1994). The recommended amounts ensure conditions where there are no severe deficiencies. Applying the NRC recommendations cannot guarantee the genetic potential of today's birds. Because these values were taken from old studies and using pure feeds in laboratory conditions. Due to the dependence of Iran's poultry industry on the import of vitamins, unfortunately, in recent years, few studies have been conducted in the country on the appropriate pattern of adding vitamins to the diet of broiler chickens. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the lower levels than the recommendation of the Ross 308 strain catalog (Aviagen, 2019) as the dominant strain of the country and to propose an optimal model for different regions that does not have a negative effect on the performance and safety traits and to reduce the need to import this strain. It will also follow the products.Materials and Methods: The aim of this study was to determine the optimal pattern of vitamin supplementation in diets based on corn, wheat waste and soybean meal on production traits, carcass characteristics and immune responses of broilers from 1 to 42 days of age in Fars province. A total of 500 Ross 308 broilers with similar mean weight (mixed sex) were distributed in a completely randomized design with five treatments, five replications and 20 chickens per replication. Experimental treatments included five levels of vitamin supplementation: 1) control (100% of the recommended values of Ross 308, 2019 strain catalog), 2) 90% of the recommended values of Ross 308, 2019 strain catalog, 3) 80% of the recommended values of Ross 308, 2019 strain catalog, 4) 70% of the recommended values of Ross 308, 2019 strain catalog and 5) 60% of the recommended values of Ross 308, 2019 strain catalog. At the end of each period, the feed consumption and body weight of the birds were recorded with a digital scale with an accuracy of ±0.01. At the age of 39 days, blood was drawn from the vein under the wing of two birds from each experimental unit, with a syringe containing EDTA anticoagulant, and the blood sample was quickly transferred to the laboratory in a flask containing ice for differential counting of white blood cells. At the end of the 42nd day of rearing, two birds from each experimental unit were slaughtered to measure the relative weight percentage of carcass components. To measure the humoral immune response, the injection of 0.5 ml sheep antigen (SRBC) at the age of 21 days was used. CBH skin hypersensitivity test was also used to measure cellular immune response.Results and Discussion: The highest and lowest mean body weight gain and feed intake belonged to the vitamin pattern of 100 and 60% of the recommendation of Ross 308 strain, respectively (P<0.01). The best feed conversion ratio and production index belonged to the vitamin pattern up to 90% of the Ross strain recommendation (P<0.01). The highest and lowest percentages of pectoralis muscle (22.2% and 19.2%) were related to the pattern of 100 and 60% of vitamin supplementation recommended by the Ross strain (P<0.01). The effect of reducing vitamin supplementation on cutaneous basophil hypersensitivity (CBH), serum antibody level against SRBC and percentage of heterophils, lymphocytes and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio was not significant.Conclusion: There was no significant difference between the functional indices and most importantly the production index of treatment 1 (100% vitamin pattern) and treatment 2 (90% vitamin pattern). Carcass traits and indicators related to humoral and cellular immune systems did not show significant differences too. As a result, a 10% reduction in the level of vitamin supplementation compared to the recommended level of the Ross 308 catalog is possible and suggested for raising broiler chickens. The final result is that in the breeding conditions of Fars province poultry farms, it is possible to reduce the level of vitamin supplements in diets containing wheat waste up to 90% of the recommendation of Ross 308 strain compared to the control diet

X-ray induced dimerization of cinnamic acid : Time-resolved inelastic X-ray scattering study

A classic example of solid-state topochemical reactions is the ultraviolet-light induced photodimerization of α-trans-cinnamic acid (CA). Here, we report the first observation of an X-ray-induced dimerization of CA and monitor it in situ using nonresonant inelastic X-ray scattering spectroscopy (NRIXS). The time-evolution of the carbon core-electron excitation spectra shows the effects of two X-ray induced reactions: dimerization on a short time-scale and disintegration on a long time-scale. We used spectrum simulations of CA and its dimerization product, α-truxillic acid (TA), to gain insight into the dimerization effects. From the time-resolved spectra, we extracted component spectra and time-dependent weights corresponding to CA and TA. The results suggest that the X-ray induced dimerization proceeds homogeneously in contrast to the dimerization induced by ultraviolet light. We also utilized the ability of NRIXS for direct tomography with chemical-bond contrast to image the spatial progress of the reactions in the sample crystal. Our work paves the way for other time-resolved studies on chemical reactions using inelastic X-ray scattering.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.peer-reviewe

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS: The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION: Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING: WHO